India – A Developed Nation by 2047?

 

Late President APJ Abdul Kalam famously dreamed of a Developed India in 2015. In his book ‘India 2020’, he strongly advocated an action plan to develop India into a strong nation, rather a knowledge superpower and Developed Nation by the year 2020.  May be, it was not backed by the political will; we also know that India (along with the rest of the world) was hit by Corona pandemic so Indian economy contracted only to bounce back by 2021! But everybody had forgotten about the Developed India dream by then.

Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi revived that dream in 2022 under his ambitious ‘Vikasit Bharat 2047’ plan. It is to match with the completion of 100 years of Independent India.  Modiji expects India’s youth to have lion’s share in making India a Developed country.

While I have no doubts about the noble intentions of Mr. Modi (having seen India progressed remarkably well in the last decade), I see a complete absence of the discussion by intelligentsia as well as opposition parties. Instead of sounding it just as a dream (or more as an election promise), it needs to be seen as a commitment of the highest order made to every citizen of India. More importantly, it needs to spell out what exactly is meant by a ‘Developed nation’. Merely saying Infrastructure development, social development, technological advancement etc. will not help unless there are measurable parameters. Unfortunately, I didn’t find any document/announcement by GoI giving the desired details or quantification of objectives.

Which criteria are to be used and which countries can be classified as being developed are subjects of debate. Different definitions of developed countries are provided by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

In general, a developed country, or advanced country is a sovereign state that has a high quality of life, developed economy, and advanced technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations. Most commonly, the criteria for evaluating the degree of economic development are the gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), the per capita income, level of industrialization, amount of widespread infrastructure and general standard of living.

Characteristics of developed countries include: 1) a high per capita income, 2) a diverse industrial mix, including a large services sector; 3) a developed financial system, 4) people having a longer life expectancy at birth, and 5) a well-developed educational system.

Unlike GDP per capita or per capita income, The United Nation’s HDI (Human Development Index) takes into account how income is turned "into education and health opportunities and therefore into higher levels of human development."

HDI ranks countries on three parameters: literacy rate, education access and healthcare. The countries are scored between 0 and 1 based on these three parameters. A country with an HDI index over 0.8 is generally considered developed.

In 2024, 40 countries fit all three criteria, while an additional 20 countries fit two out of three. (So, do we aim to be in those 40 countries in year 2047? Or, do we aim to be in top-60 countries?)

Now, let’s delve into the ground reality in India.

While I can rattle some numbers (thanks to Google/Copilot/Gemini) like, how Indian economy is close to $4 Trillion, forex reserves are $640 Billion and market capitalization is of $5 Trillion (Jan’25), what exactly does that mean to a common man, living in say, Patiala or Pune?

I agree, sound economy is ensuring employment of crores of Indians and thereby the primary needs (well conveyed through Roti, Kapada aur Makaan) are well taken care of, but what about his secondary needs?

Yes, there has been a massive push for infrastructure development all over India in terms of airports, ports, rail and road work. Lakhs of kilometers of highways are constructed bringing cities closer than before. I can talk of Maharashtra; besides the Mumbai-Pune expressway, there is Samruddhi Mahamarg linking Nagpur and Mumbai and many more. 

But once we exit the highway and enter inner roads of any city, we’re surprised by the ‘Unity in diversity’! Well, I’m talking of the roads, full of potholes and congested traffic!

From Solapur, one can reach Pune in 3 hours but then it takes one hour (or much more depending on the traffic congestion severity) to reach Hinjewadi from Hadapsar (both are suburbs of Pune) and this situation (I call it ‘last mile problem’) is seen across all Indian cities. The pot-holed roads become over-flowing rivers after just few minutes of monsoon showers, putting vehicles and commuters in danger zone!

After struggling of an hour or more in traffic as a part of daily commute, when the hapless citizen finally reaches his home, more often than not, there would be electricity outage in his house. Even a few drizzles and the electricity plays hooky! (Nevertheless, I must agree here that the urban citizen is much better off than his rural counterpart in this regard where electricity outage would be for hours!)

Comes morning and he has to worry about the water shortage (even in monsoon) and so call for a tanker for his apartment/society! (Here again, Pune is much better than most of the Marathwada towns which are perennially dependent on water tankers! Tanker mafia..!! (Incidentally, shortage of potable water is going to be a major issue all over India unless it is tackled on war footing)

And what about the rising threat of air pollution; right from Delhi, Kolkata, Kanpur, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad to Pune and other towns all over India?

So where is the ‘ease of living’? (If at all someone is bothered about it..)

Now I know the answer I heard most of the times.  Inner roads, electricity, water etc. small things don’t come under Central Government (or not even under State) ; they fall under the purview of local body / municipal corporation.  May be true; but does this knowledge help minimize the hapless citizen’s daily woes? Where should the buck stop?

Do citizens living in cities in Developed countries face such issues? On this scale??

Can we compare ‘ease of living index’ of our cities with them and find out how much gap we have to bridge? 

In short, there has to be some consensus, some report, rather a White Paper outlining which parameters, which benchmarks would be considered for a country to be termed as a Developed one. It should show the values of those benchmarks as on date (As-Is) and the target (To-be), considering the YoY inflation till 2047. The proposed white paper should outline specific benchmarks for development, assign accountability at every governance level, and include timelines for periodic reviews. Public consultations and expert panels can ensure its robustness and inclusivity.

This action plan has to have buy-in from the opposition (or at least, invite them for non-partisan discussion on this topic of national interest. There has to be consensus on at least few vital parameters that even in case BJP is not in power say in 2029 or 2034, the then ruling government would ensure implementation of the action plan for designated parameters to transform India into Developed nation) There could be one core committee with multiple sub-committees, depending on the grouping of benchmarks/parameters/criteria.

This action plan (to make India a Developed Nation by 2047) has to be driven right from top to bottom (with feedback/output measurement etc. from bottom to top) and across all states (and all towns/villages) agnostic of who is ruling it, may there be double engine or single engine government! Exemplary commitment (“Nation first”) is needed to execute this action plan of Vikasit Bharat.  

A report by the McKinsey Global Institute adds even more urgency to the narrative. It warned that India has just 33 years before its population ages at the same pace as advanced economies. It means that with a low GDP per capita — just 18% of the World Bank’s high-income threshold — India needs to "get rich before it gets old."

And again, this discussion here is only about the ‘what’ part of the developed country notion.  The ‘how’ part is altogether a different topic. (Though I want to add just one sentence here; as a nation progresses from developing country to a developed country, the conducive economy/work/social environment should enable employment/business opportunities to bulk of the population thereby reducing the freebies doled out.)

Can we expect a white paper (or at least a podcast) on this topic dear to every Indian citizen, from Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi in near future?

Else ‘Vikasit Bharat’ would remain only as an ever-illusive dream, a mirage, a case of moving target (to year 2067?) or a typical ‘feel-good’ poll-promise never to be fulfilled!

India’s demographic dividend is slipping through its fingers, and the country must act decisively and with the sense of urgency!!